Israel strikes Iran overnight
IRGC chief confirmed dead
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Israel’s long-threatened attack on Iran materialised overnight. Targets for conventional strikes included nuclear facilities and senior regime officials.
A senior Mossad official has also told Barak Ravid of Axios that the agency had undertaken ‘a series of covert sabotage operations deep inside Iran’.. ‘..aimed at damaging Iran’s strategic missile sites and its air defense capabilities.’
It remains to be seen what that means, but it’s been obvious from past operations like the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July that Israel is able to procure significant human intelligence from inside Iran. The killing of IRGC commander Hossein Salami tonight has sparked speculation that the Israeli strikes are a regime change operation and not simply an attack on the Iranian nuclear programme. The possible involvement of domestic opponents in Israeli intelligence networks will only compound those fears on the part of Iranian leaders.
Iran has pledged swift retaliation but its regional network of alliances is much diminished. Hamas has been overthrown in Gaza, Assad has fallen in Syria, and Hezbollah is gravely weakened in Lebanon. The Houthis in Yemen remain unbowed, and the situation in Iraq will also bear watching, not least because of the US bases there.
The US has publicly distanced itself from Israel’s strike, but many will assume that the attack could not have happened without US acquiescence. Israel has pre-empted US-Iranian nuclear negotiations that were due to resume on Sunday. Iranian retaliation could yet kill them off outright and strengthen the advocates of direct US military intervention.
It is an unenviable set of options for the Iranian regime, but as in the previous more limited round of strikes in October, political weakness on all sides is an aggravating factor. It is difficult to ignore the fact that the attack came after a day in which Prime Minister Netanyahu faced a vote to dissolve the Knesset, although Israeli experts insist that the strikes would not have happened without a military rationale signed off by the IDF Staff.
There is little doubt that Iran’s nuclear programme has advanced since President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA Agreement in 2018. The decision now looks more fateful then ever.