Blame game leaves cloud over Gaza intelligence diplomacy
Since the Hamas attack of October 7 last year, intelligence diplomacy has been central to efforts to achieve a ceasefire and hostage releases in Gaza. In my post on ‘The Cryptodiplomats’ in April I profiled some of the key players involved.
The latest round of negotiations collapsed in early May after Hamas accepted a text which was repudiated by Israel.
The Associated Press gave this account at the time:
An Egyptian official and a Western diplomat said the draft Hamas accepted had only minor changes in wording from a version the U.S. had earlier pushed for with Israeli approval. The changes were made in consultation with the CIA chief, who embraced the draft before sending it to Hamas, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the deliberations.
According to a copy released by Hamas, the proposal outlines a phased release of hostages alongside gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and ending with a “sustainable calm,” defined as a “permanent cessation of military and hostile operations.”1
CNN reported a rather different version this week, accusing a senior officer of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Ahmed Abdel Khalek, of altering the text without the knowledge of CIA Director Bill Burns.
Egyptian intelligence quietly changed the terms of a ceasefire proposal that Israel had already signed off on earlier this month, ultimately scuttling a deal that could have released Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and set a pathway to temporarily end the fighting in Gaza, according to three people familiar with the discussions.2
According to Middle East Eye, both Hamas and Egyptian sources have denied this account.3
Recriminations in the aftermath of a breakdown are to be expected, and its equally unsurprising that key interlocutors back the parties they are closest to, irrespective of what actually happened. In that respect, while the Egyptian and American positions are unsurprising, CNN’s claim that the Qataris are unhappy with the Egyptian role is more intriguing. We are not, however, explicitly told the nationality of any of CNN’s sources.
Talks are set to resume in Paris this week, with Burns set to meet Mossad director David Barnea and Qatari prime minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani. It is not clear whether Egyptian officials will attend.4
Egypt is nevertheless likely to remain indispensable to the process because of its physical proximity to Gaza and its experience of mediating between Hamas and Israel. The official singled out by CNN, Abdek Khalek, has worked in Gaza since the formation of the Palestinian Authority in 1994. After an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire in 2019, Haaretz reported that ‘both Israeli and Palestinian officials describe him as an experienced mediator who knows the territory and the key players in great detail.’5
The following year, however, he was accused of betrayal by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, after he told them there had been a diplomatic breakthrough, only for Israel to launch airstrikes against the group, which controls the second largest paramilitary force in Gaza.6
In the absence of face-to-face contact between the principals, negotiations will always be at risk from Chinese whispers and attempts to split the difference on the part of interlocutors. One traditional role of intelligence diplomacy has been to allow direct but deniable contact between parties that do not officially recognise each other. The current Middle East dialogue is presumably too high profile for that, attracting a level of media attention not far removed from regular diplomatic summitry. We are unlikely to see David Barnea thrashing things out with Ismail Haniyeh, even in Doha.
Samy Magdy, Melanie Lidman and Lee Keath, Israel seizes Gaza’s vital Rafah crossing, but the US says it isn’t the full invasion many fear, Associated Press, 8 May 2024.
Alex Marquardt and Jeremy Diamond, Egypt changed terms of Gaza ceasefire deal presented to Hamas, surprising negotiators, sources say, CNN, 22 May 2024.
Egyptian and Hamas-linked sources deny Cairo hindered Gaza ceasefire deal, Middle East Eye, 22 May 2024.
Barak Ravid, CIA director to travel to Europe in effort to revive Gaza hostage-ceasefire talks, Axios, 22 May 2024.
Jack Khoury, The Egyptian Generals Trying to Douse the Flames Between Israel and Hamas, Haaretz, 24 October 2019.
David Hearst, Exclusive: Islamic Jihad angry with Egypt 'betrayal' ahead of Gaza raids, Middle East Eye, 11 August 2022.