Agent Cobalt and the loyalists
Irish intelligence in the spotlight over GRU allegations
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Leinster House, the home of Ireland’s parliament, the Oireachtas (Ardfern, CC3.0).
There’s been something of a manhunt in Irish politics in recent weeks, after the Sunday Times alleged that un-named politician was operating as an agent of Russia's GRU military intelligence.1 Politicians have been lining up to deny that they are the individual dubbed ‘Cobalt’ by the Times’ John Mooney.2
However, Government reaction has been rather more critical. In a remarkable parliamentary statement on 10 October, Tanaiste (deputy prime minister) Micheál Martin said:
When I was Taoiseach [Prime Minister] on the dates concerning the allegations against this individual, I received security briefings but I was never told and never briefed that there was a spy in the Oireachtas, which to all intents and purposes is what the article in The Sunday Times asserted. I am very surprised at the degree to which everybody, herdlike, has grabbed onto the story and said, "This is it; who is the person?". I am absolutely amazed. There is a more fundamental question to be asked, which I will ask as Minister for Defence. As Minister for Defence, I have never received a security briefing stating there is a spy in the Oireachtas. There may be or there may not be, but I have never been briefed. There is an issue of accountability for our intelligence services because if this is true, then someone gave that information out. I do not think that is acceptable.
There is a broader issue. Future governments and the Oireachtas at large need to be very clear-eyed about the need, in a democracy, for intelligence services to have an accountability chain and be accountable. I argue, and a national security strategy is being developed, we lack that at the moment. I am not comfortable with the situation pertaining to intelligence. It is very important that we have intelligence in respect of the external dimension. Our Defence Forces do a very good and necessary job for the protection of our country. I have real concerns about how all of this has emerged into the public arena. I am somewhat surprised that politically it has all been in one direction and not in the other.3
The Irish Mirror reported on 14 October, that another former Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, had been briefed ‘informally’ about the case, but that Cobalt was regarded not as a spy with access to state secrets, but as an ‘agent of influence’, a much murkier category.4
This fits with the Sunday Times original claim that Cobalt was ‘used as an asset: an easily influenced person who could make introductions, disrupt public discourse or air the Kremlin’s views if and when prompted.’5 However, a later follow-up muddied the distinction, arguing that Cobalt gained 'access to sensitive information on aspects of government policy by befriending parliamentarians.'6
Martin’s comments suggest that the Cobalt leak should be seen in the context of wider debates about Irish intelligence policy. As Professor Edward Burke noted recently ‘It is no secret that Ireland, relative to similarly sized European countries, is stretched when it comes to resources for counterterrorism and espionage.’7
Some of the strongest criticism has come from neighbouring Britain, where the issue has become entangled with the political fallout from Brexit.
In February the eurosceptic think-tank Policy Exchange issued a report, Closing the Back Door’ which charged that Ireland was ‘an unreliable security partner’, arguing that the UK should therefore re-emphasise the union with Northern Ireland and reverse the demilitarisation that accompanied the Irish peace process.
It also called for the UK to ‘exert greater pressure on Ireland to do its part in collective security.’8 It is tempting to interpret the Agent Cobalt allegations as part of that effort. Yet elements of the story raise questions for the British as much as the Irish authorities.
According to the Sunday Times’ account, Sergey Prokopiev, a Russian diplomat allegedly linked to the GRU, sought to establish links with republican and loyalist paramilitaries. Cobalt agreed to help make contact with loyalists who were threatening violence against the establishment of a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain.9
Politico was told by one official that the approach to Cobalt, ‘a member of the largely left-wing opposition benches,’ suggests that ‘the Russians were “clueless” about Ireland’s political landscape.’10
At first glance a left-wing Dublin politician would indeed be an odd choice as interlocutor with staunchly pro-British loyalists. Some elements of the Irish left, notably those associated with the official republican movement, do have a history of engagement with loyalists going back to the 80s, well before the peace process made such dialogue fashionable.11 Cobalt presumably comes from a different milieu as the Sunday Times reports that he had never previously engaged with paramilitaries in his career.12
Yet the loyalist target rather than the mode of approach to it may be the real story in the agent Cobalt case. Loyalists have long had a reputation for being comprehensively penetrated by British intelligence, but that may not be enough to deter Russia given reports of its increasing recklessness in recruiting criminals as proxies.13 Dissident republicans could no doubt serve similar purposes, but do not enjoy the same level of tacit official tolerance.
The loyalist angle has received surprisingly little attention given recent controversies over the continuing activity of the Ulster Volunteer Force and the Ulster Defence Association thirty years after their 1994 ceasefire.14
Politicians with an incautious approach to being lunched by Russian diplomats are a fairly common problem across Europe. Criminal gangs of right wing paramilitaries are not.
Perhaps the UK needs to worry about its own back door as much as its neighbour’s.
John Mooney, How a Russian operative snared an Irish politician, Sunday Times, 6 October 2024.
Jane Moore, 'I am not a spy': Senators use speaking time to declare they are not Russia-linked politician, The Journal, 9 October 2024.
Dáil Éireann debate -Thursday, 10 Oct 2024, Vol. 1059 No. 5, Houses of the Oireachtas.
Michael O'Toole, Leo Varadkar was told of Agent Cobalt allegations when he was Taoiseach - and believed them, Irish Mirror, 14 October 2024.
John Mooney, How a Russian operative snared an Irish politician, Sunday Times, 6 October 2024.
John Mooney, Officials were warned in 2018 about ‘Cobalt’ Russian spy, Sunday Times, 13 October 2024.
Edward Burke, Ireland needs to beef up protection against terrorism, espionage and cyberattacks, The Irish Times, 10 September 2024.
Marcus Solarz Hendriks and Harry Halem, Closing the Back Door: Rediscovering Northern Ireland’s Role in British National Security, Policy Exchange, February 2024, p.64.
John Mooney, How a Russian operative snared an Irish politician, Sunday Times, 6 October 2024.
Shawn Pogatchnik, Russia recruited an Irish agent to exploit Brexit tensions. He’s still sitting in Ireland’s parliament, Politico, 7 October 2024.
Brian Hanley and Scott Millar, The Lost Revolution: The Story of the Official IRA and the Workers Party, Penguin Ireland, 2009, p.540.
John Mooney, How a Russian operative snared an Irish politician, Sunday Times, 6 October 2024.
UK agents 'worked with NI paramilitary killers', BBC News, 28 May 2015.
Dan Sabbagh and Pjotr Sauer, West’s spy chiefs alarmed at recklessness of Russian counterparts, Guardian, 16 October 2024.
Allison Morris, Three decades on from ceasefire, loyalists still preventing real change, Belfast Telegraph, 14 October 2024.