I was serving on active duty in the Marine Corps at the time a documents control Officer for the Second Marine Division. There was much attention given to Central America and the Caribbean area. Much of the concern was that the Soviets through Castro were expanding their influence throughout Latin America.
While these concerns were indeed genuine, the article above shows the dichotomy that existed within the National Security Establishment. The new Reagan Administration brought in a number of radical ideologues whose extreme views appalled even seasoned Cold Warriors. CIA director William Casey was himself leading the charge for more extreme covert action in Latin America. The divisions within the Reagan administration between the ideologues and the pragmatists were quite contentious, with the more pragmatic faction being led by Vice President and former CIA director George H. W. Bush and Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger.
The role of Bush ( Whose own knowledge of Latin America was quite extensive), in keeping the more hare brained elements of the National Security Establishment at bay is a story yet to be told.
Thanks for sharing that John. I should probably do a profile of Bush at some point as a past DCI, and his role as VP would be an important part of that. I think there's a case that the unravelling of Iran-Contra helped give the pragmatists the space to end the Cold War.
According to contemporary conservative commentator Howard Phillips, Bush's influence in the Reagan White House was extensive and dominating. No Vice President had ever before played such an active role in national policy. Phillips observed that in many cases Bush acted as a "Co President", with Reagan doing the more ceremonial side of the office and Bush doing the executive side. There are indeed documented cases, such as during the Falklands War, where Reagan literally handed control of the issue over to Bush.
I doubt Latell politicized the Mexico estimate. He's too independent. As a line of analysis, "Mexico is about to fall apart" is a hardy perennial. That said, the process might not have been that great. In 1986, Latell published an article derived from it, which is strange.
I'm sure there were honest disagreements among the analysts, but its hard to resist the impression that the intellectual challenge from above was tending in a particular direction.
Hi Tom. I don't think the 1986 estimate has been declassified. But it probably wasn't politicized. Hard to do that with community coordination. The NIC does publish alternative views in NIEs. Sounds like a good FOIA request!
Hi there, John Horton's daughter here. Thanks for writing about this topic.
After resigning over the Mexico intelligence estimate and as Iran-Contra broke he said to me, " I was always wondering why that punk Ollie North Sat in on meetings with Casey."
Fun fact - The primary key codes used by Soviets and Egypt in buildup to invasion of Israel were obtained in Montevideo about 6 months before the invasion. Johnson then gave the codes to Israel and the invasion was rebiffed.
Delighted that you liked the piece. That is a fascinating nugget about Montevideo. I suppose that may have been a factor in your father ending up as chief of the Soviet Bloc Division.
Personal Story
I was serving on active duty in the Marine Corps at the time a documents control Officer for the Second Marine Division. There was much attention given to Central America and the Caribbean area. Much of the concern was that the Soviets through Castro were expanding their influence throughout Latin America.
While these concerns were indeed genuine, the article above shows the dichotomy that existed within the National Security Establishment. The new Reagan Administration brought in a number of radical ideologues whose extreme views appalled even seasoned Cold Warriors. CIA director William Casey was himself leading the charge for more extreme covert action in Latin America. The divisions within the Reagan administration between the ideologues and the pragmatists were quite contentious, with the more pragmatic faction being led by Vice President and former CIA director George H. W. Bush and Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger.
The role of Bush ( Whose own knowledge of Latin America was quite extensive), in keeping the more hare brained elements of the National Security Establishment at bay is a story yet to be told.
Thanks for sharing that John. I should probably do a profile of Bush at some point as a past DCI, and his role as VP would be an important part of that. I think there's a case that the unravelling of Iran-Contra helped give the pragmatists the space to end the Cold War.
According to contemporary conservative commentator Howard Phillips, Bush's influence in the Reagan White House was extensive and dominating. No Vice President had ever before played such an active role in national policy. Phillips observed that in many cases Bush acted as a "Co President", with Reagan doing the more ceremonial side of the office and Bush doing the executive side. There are indeed documented cases, such as during the Falklands War, where Reagan literally handed control of the issue over to Bush.
I doubt Latell politicized the Mexico estimate. He's too independent. As a line of analysis, "Mexico is about to fall apart" is a hardy perennial. That said, the process might not have been that great. In 1986, Latell published an article derived from it, which is strange.
I'm sure there were honest disagreements among the analysts, but its hard to resist the impression that the intellectual challenge from above was tending in a particular direction.
Hi Tom. I don't think the 1986 estimate has been declassified. But it probably wasn't politicized. Hard to do that with community coordination. The NIC does publish alternative views in NIEs. Sounds like a good FOIA request!
Nice article Tom!
Hi there, John Horton's daughter here. Thanks for writing about this topic.
After resigning over the Mexico intelligence estimate and as Iran-Contra broke he said to me, " I was always wondering why that punk Ollie North Sat in on meetings with Casey."
Fun fact - The primary key codes used by Soviets and Egypt in buildup to invasion of Israel were obtained in Montevideo about 6 months before the invasion. Johnson then gave the codes to Israel and the invasion was rebiffed.
Hi Jane,
Delighted that you liked the piece. That is a fascinating nugget about Montevideo. I suppose that may have been a factor in your father ending up as chief of the Soviet Bloc Division.