EU's Baltic members hold the key to intelligence co-operation
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Kaja Kallas, then Prime Minister of Estonia, with Sauli Niinistö, then President of Finland in September 2023 (Matti Porre/Office of the President of the Republic of Finland).
When European Commission Special Adviser Sauli Niinistö called last month for ‘a fully-fledged intelligence cooperation service at the EU level’ the idea met some scepticism, as I noted at the time.
The co-ordination problems that have long beset the multifarious United States Intelligence Community were cited as an example of the kind of difficulties that would face a service working across 28 European countries.
Yet the election of Donald Trump in the meantime seems likely to give new impetus to the drive for European co-operation, so it may be worth looking at some of other dynamics working in this direction.
José-Miguel Palacios, the former head of the analysis division at the existing European intelligence organisation, EU INTCEN, addressed this issue in a 2020 article entitled On the Road to a European Intelligence Agency?
Big countries with considerable intelligence assets oppose the emergence of a common European agency. At the same time, smaller member states (e.g., Austria, Belgium, Greece, and Ireland) are more interested in “pooling and sharing” the limited intelligence means at their disposal and have been mentioned as being in favor of a European intelligence agency.1
EU INTCEN’s history is reported to have begun with a power struggle between two big countries. According to Der Spiegel, the organisation’s first head William Shapcott was appointed at the expense of a German candidate in order to secure British participation.2 Shapcott was succeeded by a Finn, Ilkka Salmi.3 Germany eventually got its turn in 2016 with the appointment of former BND officer Gerhard Conrad.4
Since then the role has fallen to smaller countries. José Morgado of Portugal headed INTCEN from 2019 until he was succeeded by Daniel Markić of Croatia on 1 September this year.5
Markić’s appointment in particular may be an example of the dynamic described by Palacios. According to Intelligence Online, Markić ‘spared no effort to put his service at the heart of European security and intelligence alliances’ during his eight years at the helm of Croatia’s Security and Intelligence Agency.6 One example of this was the establishment of the Intelligence College for Europe at a conference in Zagreb in 2020, realising an initiative originally proposed By French President Macron in 2017.7
One might assume that an incoming European Commission whose foreign and defence team draws heavily on Baltic nations would be favourable to this small country dynamic. However, many eastern EU members are wary of co-operation in areas that could undermine the US role in NATO.
During a European parliament hearing earlier this month, the commissioner designate for foreign and security policy, Kaja Kallas, strongly resisted the idea that the EU needs military powers separate from NATO.8 Whether that scepticism extends to intelligence remains to be seen. One might expect Kallas to be favourable to Sauli Niinistö’s report given that he was President of Finland when she was Prime Minister of Estonia.
As High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kallas will have responsibility for EU INTCEN, which is plugged into transnational networks like the Counter Terrorism Group with which the US is also involved. She will quickly have to assess the implications of Trump appointments like DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard for that co-operation.
Palacios, J. M. (2020). On the Road to a European Intelligence Agency? International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 33(3), 483–491. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2020.1754670
Dirk Koch, Augen und Ohren, Der Spiegel, 16 February 2003.
Ilkka Salmi, European Commission, accessed 22 November 2024.
Nicolas Gros Verheyde, Appointments. Change of head at IntCen, taking up position in the PSDC department and in several delegations, B2 Pro The daily life of geopolitical Europe, 5 December 2019.
José MORGADO (pdf), European External Action Service, accessed 1 November 2024.
EEAS: High Representative Josep Borrell announces senior nominations, European External Action Service, 13 September 2024.
Daniel Markic, Croatian champion of European intelligence cooperation, Intelligence Online, 17 March 2023.
First Step Taken Towards Establishing Intelligence College in Europe, Total Croatia News, 26 February 2020.
Hearing of High Representative/Vice President-designate Kaja Kallas, European Parliament 12 November 2024.